The Return of the American Voter? Party Polarization and Voting Behavior, 1988 to 2004

Abstract

A frequent concern voiced by social commentators has been the persistence of mass disengagement over the past two decades—despite evidence of improving democratic involvement. In particular, since 1988, voter turnout in presidential elections has dramatically rebounded, to the point that they now rival the turnout rates of the 1960s. Yet little is known about the cause of this trend. The primary theoretical focus of the following study is to examine what factors were behind this increase in turnout, paying particular attention to the electoral relevance of increasing party polarization. Results indicate that the rise in polarization was a central driver behind the turnout boom. Changes in the electoral environment account for almost 80 percent of the total increase in voter turnout. The analysis suggests that party polarization represents a key mechanism that links citizens to the larger political process. Implications for the current state of mass engagement generally and political behavior specifically are discussed.