Grassroots Mobilization and Voter Turnout in 2004

Abstract

Voter turnout increased sharply in 2004. At the same time, 2004 marked a change in campaign strategy, as both presidential campaigns and allied organizations placed unprecedented emphasis on voter mobilization. This article attempts to assess the degree to which grassroots mobilization efforts contributed to the surge in voter turnout. We conclude that although grassroots efforts generated millions of addi- tional votes, they probably account for less than one-third of the observed increase in turnout. Increased turnout in 2004 primarily reflects the importance that voters accorded the presidential contest. The 2004 presidential election witnessed a dramatic increase in voter turnout. Of 202.7 million eligible voters (excluding noncitizens and adults ineligible to vote due to felony convictions), 122.3 million (60.3 percent) cast ballots for president (McDonald 2005). The 2004 figure represents a dramatic increase over the numbers in the 2000 election, in which 105.4 million votes were cast for president (54.2 percent of the voting-eligible population), and the second highest voter turnout rate of any election since the 1960s. This surge is all the more remarkable in an era when declining turnout has become an expected feature of Western democracies (Dalton and Wattenberg 2002). Why did turnout increase in 2004? This essay focuses primarily on the role of voter-mobilization campaigns. A sharp change in campaign strategy occurred in 2004, with both parties placing unusual emphasis on voter mobilization. By this account, the increase in voter turnout reflects the sheer volume of mobilization activities such as door-to-door canvassing and calls from volunteer phone banks.