Scottish secession and voter turnout: simulating the effects of full voter turnout without Scottish participation in the union

Abstract

ABSTRACTThis paper examines how increases in voter turnout might allow Labour to remain competitive in future general elections if Scottish representation is removed from Parliament or Labour continues to remain uncompetitive in Scotland. The loss of Scottish representation would be deleterious to Labour's prospects of gaining sizeable majorities again in Parliament. However, this prospect may be mitigated by an increase in voter turnout, as much has been made of the benefits that left parties can accrue with across the board increases in voter turnout. Using methods of multiple imputation, our analysis shows that Labour can modestly increase their vote share at full voter turnout, while the Conservatives consistently experience declining share. Results from this study also demonstrate that Labour losses could be mitigated by increasing voter turnout in the remainder of the UK. Using multinomial probit models for several elections, we are also able to see changes in the impacts of demographic attributes on vote choice. Combined, these results allow for an understanding of how Labour might mitigate the impact of losing Scottish representation in Parliament.