Visceral fat quantification in asymptomatic adults using abdominal CT: is it predictive of future cardiac events?

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The purpose of this study was to determine if quantifying visceral adipose tissue (VAT) at CT in asymptomatic adults can predict the likelihood of future cardiac events. Subcutaneous and visceral fat volumes were obtained from abdominal CT utilizing a validated semi-automated software tool in 663 asymptomatic adults (mean age 57.3 years, 379F/284M) undergoing colorectal screening. Patients were followed for subsequent cardiac events, defined as myocardial infarction or coronary intervention for a mean follow-up interval of 7.0 ± 1.4 years. Relevant clinical data including Framingham risk score (FRS) were also collected. Statistical analysis included logistic regression, Pearson correlation coefficients, and Welch and Wilcoxon rank sum tests. Cardiac events were documented in 32 subjects (4.8%) an average 3.0 years after index CT. FRS was predictive of future cardiac events, signified by a higher score (mean score 11.9 vs. 7.4; p < 0.001). HDL levels were significantly lower in the cardiac event cohort (mean 52.2 vs. 61.0; p < 0.01). None of the other clinical variables were predictive and none of the CT-based fat measurements (visceral, subcutaneous, and total adipose tissue; visceral fat %) correlated with future cardiac events (p = 0.561–0.886). Mean visceral fat % in the cardiac event cohort was 38.1% vs. 39.1% for the non-event group. Quantification of VAT at abdominal CT was not predictive of future cardiac events in this asymptomatic cohort, whereas HDL levels and FRSs correlated well with risk.