Traffic-conflict and fuzzy-logic-based collision risk assessment for constrained crossing scenarios of a ship

Abstract

The crossing of a ship is a common type of traffic event, that becomes especially critical in constrained crossing scenarios, leading to numerous ship collision accidents. To derive a solution to mitigate ship collision risks, this study derives the basic mode of constrained crossing scenarios of a ship, then traces the collision risks from the global evolution of the crossing event with the help of the traffic conflict technique, proposes a fuzzy logic model to pre-estimate the adaptabilities of opportunity and interspace of the crossing gap and assesses ship collision risks at the conflict point in the instances of obtaining and missing the proper crossing opportunity. The results indicate that the risks resulting from the proposed model are in line with those perceived by operators of the crossing ship in typical crossing scenarios and operating conditions. The proposed model can be applied in various crossing scenarios and operating conditions after enriching the fuzzification criteria and fuzzy rules, that can provide effective support for the intelligent ship navigation. Selecting a suitable crossing gap with a favourable opportunity and adequate interspace, and obtaining substantial assistance of the crossed ships are feasible approaches to mitigating ship handling risks.