The Use of Catastrophe Theory in Forensics

Abstract

The modern theory of catastrophes contributes to the understanding of dynamic situations that govern the evolutionary development of natural phenomena, society, and man, as well as the prediction of the instability of various dynamic systems that can have catastrophic consequences. The results of the development of this theory are widely used in various fields of knowledge: in physics, biology, economics, medicine, psychology, linguistics, ecology and other sciences. The paper attempts to use the theory of catastrophes in forensic science, in particular, in the investigation of criminally relevant incidents of a man-made nature related to professional activities, which are inherently a destructive product of the functioning of various dynamic systems. First, the theoretical aspects of the theory of catastrophes are briefly outlined, the main concepts and their classifications are considered (catastrophe, man-made disaster, man-made emergency, emergencies, man-made sources of increased danger, etc.), which are important for developing a methodology for investigating man-made crimes related to professional activities. In order to improve the efficiency of the investigator’s recognition activity in establishing the cause of the crime under investigation (man-made disaster), the author proposes to use schemes (probabilistic models) obtained using the techniques for constructing the so-called fault and event trees, addressed primarily to specialists associated with the operation of technical systems and supervision behind them. According to the author, this will contribute to the effectiveness of putting forward investigative leads in a criminal case and their verification.