CONTROL OF TECHNICAL SYSTEMS BASED ON PREDICTION OF THEIR INDIVIDUAL RESOURCE

Abstract

Contex. The actual task of forecasting an individual resource of a variety of design and design of technical systems was solved. Objective. The purpose of the work is to develop a methodology for managing the operation of complex technical systems based on the forecasting of their individual resource. Method. Modern management methods allow you to make advance management decisions to prevent accidents and the consequent technogenic catastrophes. These decisions are based on extrapolating the value of the monitored signal to the maximum permissible level. However, the norms are compiled based on average statistical data, which can only relate to a controlled sample of the machine with a certain degree of probability. This is the cause of errors in predicting the moment when this sample is stopped for repairs. This problem is especially urgent for complex and responsible technical systems manufactured in small series or even in single specimens. Such systems do not have statistical data to create these norms. To solve this problem, another management methodology was developed that excludes the extrapolation procedure and allows determining the operating time of the technical system prior to repair based on the identification results of the model, describing the time variation of the value of the monitored parameter Results. The methodology of management of technical systems is developed, ensuring the control of their current technical condition based on information on their individual resource. The methodology was used to control the gradual deterioration of the technical state of the hydro turbine, which resulted in its catastrophic destruction. Conclusions. The performed calculations confirmed the efficiency of the proposed methodology for managing the operation of technical systems based on the forecasting of their individual resource, which makes it possible to recommend it for use in practice when solving problems of controlling the operation of complex technical systems, thus preventing their accidents, often leading to man-made disasters. Prospects for further research will be the development of a forecasting - diagnostic complex, the software of which reflects the algorithm for applying the developed methodology of forecasting an individual resource of various designs and designation of technical systems.