MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF RISK CONTROL ARISING FROM THE FUNCTIONING OF COMPLEX TECHNICAL SYSTEMS FOR CRITICAL PURPOSES IN CONDITIONS OF UNCERTAINTY OF INFORMATION ABOUT THE VALUES OF PARAMETERS AND THE PHASE STATE

Abstract

Introduction. The paper presents a description of the process of constructing a mathematical model for managing risks arising from the operation of complex technical unique systems for critical purposes under conditions of uncertainty of information about the parameters and phase state. The purpose of the study is to create an individual optimal strategy for managing risk events that occur during the operation of complex technical systems, which minimizes the cost of preventive work, as well as the amount of damage that may result from the occurrence of relevant events. The objectives of the study include the construction of a mathematical model for control risks arising from the operation of complex dynamic unique technical systems for critical purposes under conditions of interval uncertainty of information about the values of parameters and the phase state, since as well as an analysis of existing approaches to creating an individual forecast of changes in the state of the considered class of systems.
 Materials and Methods. The article gives a comparative description of the effectiveness of the application of the mathematical apparatus of the theory of outliers of random processes and the method of individual forecasting in solving the problem of managing risks arising from the operation of complex unique technical systems for critical purposes under conditions of uncertainty. Based on the statistical methods of interval data, a mathematical model of risk management was created, taking into account possible errors in measuring the values of the parameters of the considered class of complex systems at all control windows during the operation period.
 Results. The scientific novelty of the implemented approach lies in the use of interval data statistics, which allow the most correct consideration of possible errors associated with measuring the values of the characteristics of the studied technical systems at all stages of the control process.
 Discussion and Conclusions. The mathematical model of risk control developed in the course of the study, arising from the operation of complex technical systems for critical purposes, makes it possible to make the optimal choice of risk management strategy when using objects of this class. Along with the above, an algorithm has been developed for predicting changes in the state of a technical system during the entire period of its operation based on the mathematical apparatus of statistics of interval data, which makes it possible to take into account in the calculations the errors that occur when measuring the values of the main parameters of the system under consideration at all stages of the control process.