The Temporal and Spatial Evolution and Influencing Factors of the Coupling Coordination Degree Between the Promotion of the “Dual Carbon” Targets and Stable Economic Growth in China

Abstract

Coordinating the relationship between “dual carbon” targets and stable economic growth is crucial for promoting high-quality development in China. This study utilizes the coupling coordination model, kernel density estimation, and spatial econometric models to explore the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics and influencing factors of the coupling coordination degree between the promotion of the “dual carbon” targets and stable economic growth in 287 Chinese cities from 2011 to 2021. The results indicate that, in terms of temporal evolution, the promotion of China’s “dual carbon” targets increases yearly, while stable economic growth follows a “year-on-year increase—short-term decline—sustained recovery” pattern with the coupling coordination degree fluctuating upward. Regarding spatial evolution, the coupling coordination degree between the promotion of the “dual carbon” targets and stable economic growth in China presents a “higher in the east, lower in the west” spatial pattern, with varying gradient effects and polarization across the country and its regions. Influencing factors include government intervention, environmental regulations, energy efficiency, financial development, and R&D investment intensity. These findings provide scientific insights for addressing the mutual constraints between “dual carbon” targets and stable economic growth.