Analysis of temporal and spatial evolution characteristics and influencing factors of land use transformation in Hebei Province from the perspective of supply and demand

Abstract

This study focuses on the counties and districts of Hebei Province as the research unit. It adopts a supply-demand perspective to analyze the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of farmland utilization transformation in the province, investigate the coordination of this transformation, and explore the influencing factors. The weight of indicators is calculated using the entropy weighting method and Analytic Hierarchy Process The comprehensive evaluation model is then applied to calculate the supply-demand transformation index of farmland utilization in Hebei Province for the years 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020. Furthermore, the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics are analyzed using the kernel density estimation method. The coupling coordination degree model is selected to explain the relationship between the supply-demand transformation of farmland utilization. Finally, the influencing factors are analyzed using the geographical detector model. The research findings are as follows: 1) The supply-demand transformation index of farmland utilization in Hebei Province has shown an increasing trend during the study period. The standard deviation of the supply transformation index has increased over time, while the demand transformation index has increased at a faster rate. High-density supply transformation is concentrated in the southeast, particularly in the eastern part of Shijiazhuang. Conversely, the northwest exhibits a low-density supply transformation. High-density demand transformation is observed in urban areas across the province, with a significant expansion from 2010 to 2015. 2) There is a strong correlation between the supply and demand transformation of farmland utilization. The coupling coordination degree has gradually improved from 2005 to 2015, transitioning from rapid to stable growth. The level of coupling coordination has shifted from imbalance to coordination. The mountainous areas in the northwest of Hebei Province exhibit relatively lower coupling coordination degrees, while the plains in the southeast demonstrate higher levels. 3) The supply transformation of farmland utilization is closely correlated with the natural environment, particularly elevation and topography. On the other hand, the demand transformation is closely associated with socio-economic development, with a scarcity of supply driving an increase in the demand transformation index. Industrial developed areas show a higher intensity of demand for farmland utilization. 4) To ensure the sustainable utilization of farmland while meeting food production needs, it is crucial to enhance contiguous farmland and mechanization levels, promote the integration of agriculture and tourism, establish an ecological barrier around Beijing-Tianjin, and optimize the ecological compensation mechanism for farmland. The above findings provide valuable insights into farmland utilization transformation and suggest important strategies for its sustainable development.