The forecast of the thunderstorm on the basis of settlement fields of meteorological parameters of global prognostic model (GFS NCEP) for areas of Western Caucasus

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The main reasons for the lack of warning of dangerous convective phenomena are the lack of initial information, as well as the lack of traditional approaches to predict local rapidly developing processes. At present, the results of atmospheric parameters prediction based on global and mesoscale models have been successfully used in the study and forecast of thunderstorm processes occurring over a limited area. They are based on non-stationary three-dimensional equations of atmospheric hydrodynamics and parametrization of atmospheric processes (shortwave and longwave radiation fluxes, convective processes, boundary layer, moisture microphysics, atmospheric turbulence, heat and moisture exchange in the underlying surface).In this article, according to the calculated output of the global atmospheric model (Global Forecast System GFS), a method is proposed for predicting lightning processes based on the statistical interpretation of the “model output” for the regions of southern European Russia.For different climatic zones of the North Caucasus, statistical forecast models were constructed and the results of assessments of the development of thunderhair processes by the corresponding discriminant functions for characteristic regions of the southern European Russia — the Western and Central parts of the North Caucasus — are presented.