THE ECONOMIC CRISIS AS A FACTOR IN CHANGING THE STRUCTURE OF MULTIMODAL TRANSPORTATION ROUTES

Abstract

Abstract. The article deals with the problem of assessing the impact of the economic crisis as a factor of the necessity for systemic change in the structure of multimodal transportation routes. The impact of the economic crisis, in terms of crisis theory and the crisis as an ontic category, is considered by the authors as a driving factor in changing the paradigm of the system of multimodal transportation. Therefore, the task of quantitative assessment of the impact of the economic crisis for intra-system assessment of the need for qualitative change in the structure of cargo transportation routes, first of all, their most vulnerable type - multimodal transportation, becomes especially important. The authors contrasted the existing methodology of traffic optimization with a mathematical formalization based on crisis theory and graph theory. This allowed a mathematically correct analysis of existing challenges in real time and, accordingly, to propose changes in the structure of multimodal transportation routes so that these changes minimize the impact of existing risks. This approach will prevent the formation of traffic jams on transport routes and nodes of the transport system and, accordingly, the collapse of freight traffic. Avoiding the collapse of traffic, in turn, will prevent it from extremely negative social, political, economic consequences for the country. The analysis confirmed the spontaneous formation of traffic flows that are alternative to the existing ones in the event of an increase in the level of threats. The spontaneous nature of the formation of the new transportation structure has not yet led to the collapse of the transport system due to the availability of resources of the transport network and a significant reserve of design capacity of transit transport hubs — seaports. But if the level of threats increases to more transport routes, the likelihood of collapse will increase. Therefore, the authors came to the conclusion that: 1) a permanent forecast of the level of risks is required; 2) assessment of the impact of the crisis on the transport system is necessary; 3) only centralized management of changes in the structure of transportation routes, in particular, multimodal ones will allow to minimize the impact of the crisis and avoid the risk of collapse of the transport system.
 Keywords: economic crisis, risks, multimodal transportation, mathematical modeling, change of route system.
 JEL Classification O3, Q43, P5
 Formulas: 1; fig.: 1; tabl.: 2; bibl.: 20.