The contribution of seasonal climate forecasts to the management of agricultural disaster-risk in South Africa

Abstract

This study examined the use of Seasonal Climate Forecast (SCF) information in the agricultural sector in South Africa following the compilation and dissemination of early warning information aiming to reduce risks faced by farming communities. SCF information received from the scientific community is disseminated to the agricultural sector through intermediaries. The study assessed the channels through which SCF information is disseminated to end users by intermediaries. To achieve this, ethnographic interviews took place with 110 intermediaries covering national, provincial, agricultural union׳s structures. In these interviews the status of the preparation of early warning information, the effectiveness of the dissemination of information and the success in capacitating end users to understand the SCF information, were assessed in order to create a more functional system. The findings highlighted that improved channels and structures, through which reliable and timely SCF information that could serve as early warning should be developed. In addition, it was found that end user SCF information feedback programmes should improve, which will assist intermediaries to improve the dissemination of information. Governing bodies, intermediaries and end-users should collectively identify institutional, social and infrastructural barriers in the channels of early warning information dissemination, and should jointly devise action plans to overcome these.