Challenges for integrating seasonal climate forecasts in user applications

Abstract

▶ Challenges for integrating seasonal climate forecasts in user applications are discussed. ▶ A simplified end-to-end forecasting system framework is proposed. ▶ Five challenges are highlighted: Firstly, production of climate forecast information one to six months in advance. Secondly, refinement of forecast information at the spatial and time scales required by application models. Thirdly, production of information to support decision making through application models. Fourthly, stimulate feedback from end users to scientists. Fifthly, design and implement the whole end-to-end system. ▶ Objective use of climate forecasts to support decisions requires interaction among scientists and decision makers. ▶ End user should drive the end-to-end forecast system skill assessment through real world applications . This review discusses the challenges for integrating seasonal climate forecast information in user applications within the design of a simplified end-to-end forecasting system framework. Seasonal climate forecasts are operationally produced at various climate prediction centers around the world. However, these forecasts are rarely objectively integrated in application models to help the end user decision-making process, in spite of recent advances demonstrated through pilot projects in health, agricultural and water resources applications. An example of crop yield forecast produced as part of the EUROBRISA multi-institutional initiative is presented for illustrating some of the challenges. The challenges for moving toward a more objective use of seasonal climate forecasts to help support decision making involve more efficient interaction among climate scientists, system scientists and decision makers, with the end user driving the skill assessment of the entire end-to-end forecasting system through real world forecast applications.