Managing Climate Risks Using Seasonal Climate Forecast Information in Vhembe District in Limpopo Province, South Africa

Sylvester Mpandeli

doi:10.5539/jsd.v7n5p68

Abstract

The majority of small – scale farmers in the Vhembe district have been experiencing extreme climatic risk, high climate variability and change for a very long time. The majority of these small –scale farmers are vulnerable to all types of climate risk due to their low adaptive capacity, lack of access to technology as a result of level of education, lack of financial resources and also among other things low level of resilience and high level of poverty amongst these farmers. However, the majority of these small – scale farmers in the Vhembe district use different adaptive strategies as a way of preserving assets for future livelihoods including: (a) Drought resistant varieties, (b) Crop diversification, (c) Plant crops that require less water, (d) Some of these small – scale farmers use local climate indicators to monitor climate risk, (e) Adjust fertilizer input, (f) Use rainwater harvesting techniques. Different institutions in the country including the South African Weather Services, and the Agricultural Research Council, and the Limpopo Provincial Department of Agriculture, issue and disseminate the seasonal forecasts information to different districts including the Vhembe. Most of the time, the information has been disseminated to end-users in simple ways, but the need to find more out more about end users’ needs is still required.

Highlights

Since 1994, the South African Weather Service (SAWS) has been actively involved in research around the seasonal time-scale of climate predictions (Klopper et al, 1998; Landman and Manson, 1999; Tennant, 1999; O’Brien et al, 2000), with the aim of providing the best possible information on future climate conditions so that the risk in economic and social decisions are reduced
Materials and Methods Two methods were used to analyze the results from this paper and this includes: (a) Mean annual rainfall map: The rainfall data downloaded from the AgroMet databank at the ARC-ISCW (South African Weather Service and ISCW weather stations) from 1920 – 1999 with a recording period of 10 years and more
It is important for users to understand that all seasonal forecast information or data are given as probabilities and not as deterministic

Summary

Introduction

Since 1994, the South African Weather Service (SAWS) has been actively involved in research around the seasonal time-scale of climate predictions (Klopper et al, 1998; Landman and Manson, 1999; Tennant, 1999; O’Brien et al, 2000), with the aim of providing the best possible information on future climate conditions so that the risk in economic and social decisions are reduced. Most studies of the value of the seasonal forecast have been conducted in the developed world (Mjelde et al, 1988; Lyakhou, 1994; Mosley, 1994; Mason, 1996; Nicholls, 1996; Mjelde et al, 1997; Landman & Mason, 1999; Letson et al, 2001; Klopper & Landman, 2003, O’Brien & Vogel., 2003). Forecasts need to be expressed in the language of the users, providing the communities with possible appropriate alternatives to current production methods (Price, 1995; Arctic Council, 1995; Blench, 1999; Stern and Easterling, 1999; Stricherz, 1999; Letson et al, 2001; Valdivia and Gillies., 2003; Easton, 2004b; Hansen et al, 2004; Ziervogel et al, 2004). It requires that trust and communication exist between users and providers of climate forecast (Finan, 1999)

Methods

Results

Conclusion