Study on forecast scenarios for simulation of future urban growth in Shenyang City based on SLEUTH model

Abstract

The SLEUTH urban growth model was used to simulate future urban growth patterns and to explore potential environmental impacts of urban development under different conditions of development in Shenyang City, China. The SLEUTH model was calibrated with historical data (1988–2004) extracted from a time series of TM satellite images, and the future growth was projected out to 2030 assuming three different policy scenarios: (1) current trends scenario (Scenario CT), (2) regional policy and urban planning scenario (Scenario PP), and (3) environmental protection scenario (Scenario EP). Scenario analysis showed that urban growth would accelerate under all policy scenarios with significant differences in development pattern and sustainability after 2016. Urban development under Scenario CT would lead to substantial loss of resource lands than that under the other two scenarios, and the urban landscape pattern would be increasingly complex and dispersed. In contrast, urban growth under scenario PP and EP would consume less natural resource land and show a relatively compact urban development pattern during the prediction period. This study suggested that it is crucial to take stringent urban planning and management measures to control future urban growth and to protect primary farmland and the support system of urban ecology in Shenyang City. The SLEUTH model is a useful planning tool to guide sustainable utilization of urban land resources to a certain extent.