Simulate urban growth based on RS, GIS, and SLEUTH model in Shenyang-Fushun metropolitan area northeastern China

Abstract

Shenyang and Fushun are two most nearest mega cities in China. Integration of the two cities as one sub-administrative economic region is a state and province policy to promote economy development of Liaoning province. How the urban patterns of the mega cities will grow is interested to city planners, decision-makers, land managers, ecologists, geographers, and resource managers because it's special policy and spatiotemporal dynamic complexity. This study explore the combined application of remote sensing, geographical information system and SLEUTH urban growth model to analyze and model urban growth pattern in Shenyang-Fushun metropolitan area northeastern China. The sequential RS images can give quantitative descriptors of the geometry of urban form to be computed and compared over time. The investigation is based on a 16-year time series data set compiled from interpreted historical TM satellite imagery. The SLEUTH model was calibrated using the mutil-temporal data set for the 6391.12km <sup xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">2</sup> area where has experienced rapid urbanization in recent years. The model allowed a spatial forecast of urban growth, and future growth was projected out to 2050 assuming four different policy scenarios: (1) current trends (CT), (2) accelerated urban development (AUD), (3) protected urban development (PUD), and (4) limitative urban growth (LUD). The predicted urban growth shows similar compact pattern under each scenario except the current trends scenario that shows diffused urban growth pattern and most diffused growth appears at south of region. Edge growth and road gravity growth are the main growth types in the future. The accelerated urban development scenario shows the most urban growth area. The limitative urban growth scenario shows the least urban growth area. The protected urban development scenario shows moderate urban growth area and good protection to other land resources. The urban land of two mega cities will connect firstly to a whole on the south bank of Hun River about in 2040 in the accelerated urban development and the current trends scenarios, and will not connect on the other two scenarios until 2050. The combined method using remote sensing, geographical information system and SLEUTH urban growth model is powerful for representation, modeling and prediction of the spatiotemporal urban growth, and useful for understanding the alternative future planning scenarios, but location accuracy and scenarios design must be further considered for local application.