Simulating the impacts of ecological protection policies on urban land use sustainability in Shenyang-Fushun, China

Abstract

Chinese cities are undergoing rapid urban sprawl, dramatic landscape change, industrialisation, and ecological damage, which threaten urban sustainable development. The aim of our research was to answer the following question: is it possible to achieve sustainable development through rational ecological protection policies that harmonise future urbanisation, re‐industrialisation, economic development, and sustainable urban land use in these cities? To answer the question, we conducted a simulation of policy impacts on future urban growth and landscape change. We applied a widely used regional assessment and predictive model, SLEUTH, to explore the potential impacts of different ecological protection policy scenarios in the Shenyang-Fushun metropolitan region of China. Future urban growth and landscape changes were projected out to 2050, assuming three different ecological protection policy scenarios: (1) accelerated urban development (AUD), (2) managed urban development (MUD), and (3) limited urban development (LUD). Landscape metrics were used to compare and analyse the impacts of the future scenarios on urban growth and landscape change. Analysis reveals that urban growth and landscape fragmentation increase in all scenarios, but future urban growth area and landscape pattern differ among the scenarios. The AUD scenario will cause excessive urban growth, major land loss, and serious landscape fragmentation. The LUD scenario shows good land resource protection and low landscape fragmentation, but the urban growth rate is unrealistically low, reducing the extent of likely re-industrialisation and economic development. The MUD scenario shows moderate urban growth and landscape fragmentation. It would be the most suitable scenario for the industrial metropolitan area under study if the urban sprawl can be controlled, and it would better harmonise re-industrialisation, ecological health, and land preservation and achieve sustainable development in the area.