Analyzing spatial patterns, driving forces and predicting future growth scenarios for supporting sustainable urban growth: Evidence from Tabriz metropolitan area, Iran

Abstract

Urban expansion has caused major changes in land use and urban growth patterns in metropolitan areas. While urban growth in these areas is a well-known phenomenon, the trends, the spatial pattern of growth, and its driving forces are still relatively unknown. This study attempted to analyze these issues in Tabriz Metropolitan Area (TMA). The SLEUTH model was used to analyze urban growth patterns and predict future growth. Given that socio-economic driving forces are overlooked in this model, Logistic Regression (LR) and Multi-Criterion Evaluation (MCE) were used to develop three growth scenarios to provide a better representation of future growth patterns. The results show that the edge growth pattern was dominant over the entire region while the dispersed growth pattern appears to be greater in some sub-regions. Accessibility to main roads, cities, and services had a positive impact while proximity to industrial lands had the most negative effect on growth patterns of TMA. Predicting future growth scenarios indicate that the highest rate of urban growth in 2035 will be, respectively, uncontrolled growth, historical growth, and planned growth. The implications of this study could be useful for policymakers and planners regarding the realities of spatial patterns and future urban growth.