Strategic Implications of a Nuclear North Korea: Europe’s Dual Role in Diplomacy and Deterrence

Abstract

This article examines the strategic implications of North Korea as a nuclear state, and outlines why the default setting of a nuclear Korean Peninsula is instability, thereby also showing why this is not simply a U.S.-North Korea or North-South peninsular issue when it comes to preventing conflict escalation. Indeed, it is not only a regional issue involving China, Japan, and Russia, but a global issue warranting a world-wide effort at resolution. An understudied aspect of a nuclear North Korea and its geo-strategic implications is the way in which Europe is affected. As a norm-maker, as well as a party with critical stakes in maintaining a liberal global order, European states, the EU, and NATO have geopolitical interests in the nonproliferation of nuclear weapons, particularly vis-a-vis dictatorial regimes such as North Korea. In light of this, this article argues that Europe’s policy-makers should (a) continue to devote major diplomatic resources (including naming a Special Representative for North Korea) to the effort to keep Korean Peninsula diplomacy alive, and (b), regardless of the success or failure of Korean Peninsula diplomacy, prepare to contribute to deterrence and containment efforts in concert with the international community. Whether through diplomacy or deterrence, Europe must become more pro-active if it hopes to enjoy peninsular peace dividends.