制度存續的鬥爭：影響北韓金正日時期(1990-2011)對外行為的國內因素

Abstract

Since the end of the Cold War, North Korea has been seen as an unstable factor of East Asian security. She not only develops nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles, but also maintains a large number of traditional forces, threatens her neighboring states with military force, and is not willing to abandon the possibility of unifying the Korean Peninsula with force. Alongside with these provocative gestures, under the status of isolation and not following the Chinese method of economic reformation, North Korea is not only maintaining her traditional friendship with China and Russia, but is also seeking to normalize her diplomatic relations with the USA and Japan, cooperating with South Korea economically, practicing her “practical diplomacy” against capitalist states, and seeking economic development and foreign investment via establishing economic special zones. The two-handed strategy and the non-transparency of North Korean information caused the international society to misunderstand North Korea as an “irrational”, “provocative”, or “unpredicable”state. On the other hand, in present day academic studies, many scholars see North Korean‟s foreign policies holding pragmatic and realistic characters, and I think the reason causing the previous mentioned misunderstanding is due to the lack of understanding on North Korea‟s domestic factors. Under such assumption, this thesis borrows the research structure of neo-classical realism and attempts to analyze North Korea‟s foreign policy through historical factors, domestic political system and North Korea‟s official ideology, and discuss how these different domestic factors influence North Korea‟s foreign behaviors. At the same time, I also attempt to examine the correlations between the previous mentioned domestic factors and North Korea‟s diplomatic relations with major states, North Korea‟s foreign economic behaviors, and her nuclear and missile diplomacy. The ultimate political goal behind North Korea‟s contradictory foreign behaviors will also examined. Finally, according to these analysis, I argue that during the Kim Jong Il era, North Korea‟s foreign behaviors had the following traits: 1) the foreign relation with the USA is top priority in the Kim Jong Il era; 2) idea factors influence North Korea‟s foreign behaviors deeply and thoroughly; 3) North Korea tends to use unconventional strategies; 4) her foreign-policy decision-making system is highly centralized; and 5) foreign economic behavior plays a subordinate role in achieving her political goal.