Spatiotemporal Differentiation of Carbon Emissions from Logistics Industry at Provincial Scale in China Under the Background of High-quality Economic Development

Abstract

Since 2010, the Chinese economy has transitioned from a high-speed growth model to a high-quality development model. During this period, the logistics industry has witnessed rapid growth, leading to significant carbon emissions and posing severe threats to the ecological environment. To investigate the spatiotemporal variations in carbon emissions in China's logistics industry, we conducted a correlation analysis using Moran's I index and a bivariate spatial autocorrelation model from 2010 to 2021. Additionally, we employed a geographically and temporally weighted regression model （GTWR） to examine the spatial heterogeneity of factors influencing provincial-level logistics-related carbon emissions. The results indicated that over the study period, there was a shift from insignificant spatial relationships to significant positive spatial correlations among provincial-level logistics carbon emissions in China. Furthermore, varying degrees of spatial clustering were observed. The findings regarding factor heterogeneity revealed that freight turnover volume, per capita GDP of the logistics industry, and infrastructure level exhibited positive spatial correlations with logistics-related carbon emissions, whereas energy intensity showed negative spatial correlations with such emissions. Comparing the results from the geographically weighted regression （GWR） and ordinary least squares regression （OLS）, it was evident that the adjusted R-squared values for the OLS, GWR, and GTWR models were 0.541, 0.567, and 0.838, respectively. This suggests that our adopted GTWR model provided a superior fit and offered better explanations for spatiotemporal heterogeneity between various influencing factors and logistics-related carbon emissions. These research findings can serve as valuable references for formulating province-specific strategies to reduce carbon emissions within China's economy under its high-quality development context.