Influencing Factors and Forecasting of Carbon Emissions in China's Logistics Industry——Based on GM-ARIMA Model

Abstract

As an important industry in China's national economy, the logistics industry has an increasing proportion of carbon emissions year by year. In order to achieve China's carbon emission reduction target, it is urgent to study the emission reduction path of the logistics industry. In this paper, GM and ARIMA are combined in a weighted way to improve the prediction accuracy, uses the GM-ARIMA method to select 12 influencing factors such as population, per capita GDP, and per capita urban road area to establish a carbon emission prediction model for China's logistics industry. And take the carbon emission data from 2000 to 2020 as an example to conduct empirical research. The results show that: Compared with the GM (1,1), the GM-ARIMA prediction has a 4.33% reduction in error, which has a better prediction effect on the carbon emissions of the logistics industry. The carbon emission of China's logistics industry will peak at 967.45Mt CO2 in 2028. To achieve the carbon peaking target, China should introduce more emission reduction policies related to logistics.