Carbon emission scenario forecast and emission reduction path of China's logistics industry from the perspective of green supply chain management

Abstract

Green logistics is an important part of green supply chain management, and its green and low-carbon level greatly affects the level of green supply chain management. In order to achieve China's targets of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, and to study the emission reduction path of the logistics industry under green supply chain management, this paper uses the scalable STIRPAT model and ridge regression to analyze the influencing factors of carbon emissions in the logistics industry; Taking the relevant data from 2000 to 2020 as an example, combined with the scenario analysis method, this paper conducts an empirical study on the development trend of carbon emissions in China's logistics industry in the future. The results show that: under the low-carbon and enhanced low-carbon scenarios, China's logistics industry can achieve the carbon peak target of 876.6 MtCO2 and 817.02 MtCO2 respectively. Carbon emissions can be reduced to 234.9 MtCO2 by 2060 in the Enhanced Low Carbon Scenario. There is still a certain distance between neutralization. In the meantime, according to the forecast results, this paper, from the perspective of green supply chain management, from the three directions of carbon trading, reverse logistics and emission reduction costs, gives suggestions on the emission reduction path of China's logistics industry under the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals: consider early Incorporate the logistics industry into the carbon trading market; increase support and accelerate the development of reverse logistics; increase scientific research investment in clean energy, and promote new energy vehicles. This paper innovatively stands in the perspective of supply chain management, and improves the analysis of influencing factors. For the single industry of logistics industry, the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals goal is put in a model, which can better reflect the complete trend and target Provide low-carbon directions and suggestions. In all, these findings contribute to the formulation and implementation of sound policies to help China achieve the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.