Construction Path of "Zero Carbon" Power Plant Based on the LEAP Model

Abstract

As the power industry is the primary carbon emission industry, the research on the construction path of "zero-carbon" power plants against the background of the "dual-carbon" goal must be strengthened. Considering a state-owned power generation enterprise as an example, based on the carbon emissions of the power plant in recent years, the LEAP model was constructed by combining its energy structure and geographical and climatic conditions and the baseline, energy structure adjustment, technological progress, and comprehensive scenarios were set up. The energy consumption demand under each scenario was analyzed and the future carbon emissions under each scenario were predicted. The results showed that in 2060, the total carbon emissions from the power generation sector under the technological progress and energy structure adjustment scenarios decrease by 54.55% and 75.97% compared with those in the baseline scenario, respectively, which demonstrated the large potential for carbon emission reduction from clean energy substitution and that the flexibility transformation of thermal power units and the upgrading and replacement of ultra-supercritical generating units could reduce coal consumption and decrease carbon emissions, whereas the development of CCUS technology was significant, and the construction of CCUS projects was a necessary condition for realizing carbon neutrality of power plants while retaining a certain scale of thermal power generation. Under a comprehensive scenario, "zero carbon" emissions from power plants could be realized around 2056. The results of the study provide ideas for the construction of "zero carbon" power plants.