Measurement of carbon emissions from marine fisheries and system dynamics simulation analysis: China’s northern marine economic zone case

Abstract

The economic growth of marine fishery in China is overall stable, with output of mariculture, marine fishing, and carbon emission of marine fishery is increasing. To integrate the concept of low-carbon and green development into the whole process of marine fishery development, it is necessary to comprehend the status quo and development trend of marine fishery carbon emission. This study measures the carbon emissions of marine fisheries in the Northern Marine Economic Circle, a development region representing China’s marine fisheries, from 2006 to 2019. We employed a system dynamics approach to establish a marine fisheries carbon emission dynamic model. In our model, five scenarios are set up to dynamically simulate the development and evolution trend of future marine fisheries carbon emissions, under the impact of rapid economic development, energy structure adjustment, and industrial structure adjustment. The results are as follows. (i) Total carbon emissions from marine fisheries in the northern marine economic zone show a year-on-year increase from 2006 to 2019. (ii) Simulations from the five scenarios indicate that rapid economic development significantly impact the increase of carbon emissions from marine fisheries, while adjustment of the energy and industrial structures helped control carbon emissions from marine fisheries. This study provides relevant information to control carbon emissions at the marine level, and predicts the development trend of carbon emissions from marine fisheries, which can provide a reference for fisheries to seek an effective path of energy conservation and emission reduction, and improve their high-quality development level.