Spatial assessment of potential areas at risk from blueberry gall midge distribution in South Korea

Abstract

AbstractDasineura oxycoccana, the blueberry gall midge, has damaged domestic blueberry cultivation since its presence was confirmed in Korea. In this study, the domestic climatic suitability of D. oxycoccana was evaluated using the CLIMEX model, which comprehensively integrates the species biology and regional climate. In addition, we derived the risk posed to major areas of blueberry cultivation by considering the domestic potential distribution of D. oxycoccana based on climatic suitability D. oxycoccana showed the highest occurrence suitability on the southern coast under the current climate, and its population is expected to gradually increase inland due to climate change. Jeju and the southern coast were the major areas that were presently found to be at risk from D. oxycoccana; the area at risk from D. oxycoccana is expected to extend to southern Gyeonggi‐do and Ganwon‐do by 2040 and 2060, respectively. D. oxycoccana was predicted to occur throughout the country according to climate change, suggesting increase in its infestation in blueberry cultivation. Therefore, we expected this study provides precautionary evaluation for monitoring and controlling the pest.