Distribution analysis of Leptoglossus occidentalis Heidemann (Heteroptera: Coreidae) in South Korea using climate and host plant ensemble maps

Abstract

Spatial ensemble modeling by overlaying host distribution and climatic suitability predicted by the developed CLIMEX model to evaluate the potential distribution of Leptoglossus occidentalis in South Korea. • We develop the CLIMEX model suitable for L. occidentalis distribution. • The model could predict 99% of actual distribution in North America. • The developed model was applied to predict L. occidentalis in South Korea. • Ensemble map combining climatic suitability and coniferous forests was constructed. • L. occidentalis distribution would decrease by climate change in South Korea. Leptoglossus occidentalis Heidemann (Heteroptera: Coreidae) is a notorious pest that causes irreversible damage to coniferous forests in South Korea. However, an effective control strategy is still under development. In this study, we used CLIMEX to analyze the potential distribution of L. occidentalis in relation to climate and host plants in South Korea for the identification of effective control spots. The climate needs of L. occidentalis under current and future climate conditions were analyzed and projected on a map along with the distribution of coniferous forests. The CLIMEX model projected that the area of L. occidentalis distribution would decrease slightly in 2060 compared with that at present. However, it was projected that occurrence in mountainous regions would be sustained, suggesting continued damage to coniferous forests in South Korea.