Space Matters. The Group Threat Hypothesis Revisited with Geographically Weighted Regression. The Case of the NPD 2009 Electoral Success

Abstract

Summary A geographically weighted regression approach is used to assess the association of the electoral success of the NPD, an extreme right-wing political party, during the 2009 German federal election with levels of and changes in immigrant and unemployment rates. The results do not support the group threat hypothesis: the immigrant rate remains non-significant in large areas of West Germany while it shows a negative and significant relationship with NPD electoral success in most localities in East Germany as well as in Northern Bavaria. Instead, findings tend to confirm the contact hypothesis: a higher percentage of immigrants within an electoral district seems to lead to larger interethnic contact opportunities and thus to a lower proportion of votes for the NPD. The largest significant positive association of unemployment rate with NPD electoral results is observed with respect to localities that are situated around the former border between East and West Germany. The large regional variations in the effects of immigrant and unemployment rates point to different mechanisms which are at stake in the association of populist radical right success with unemployment and immigrant rates. These findings illustrate the importance of spatial variability and make the case for a broader new research agenda dedicated to exploring the mechanisms underlying spatial nonstationarity.