Abstract
Malawi is one of the countries in the sub-Saharan Africa with high prevalence of HIV/AIDS. This paper ana- lyzes socio-demographic effects using estimates and projections by the United Nations Population Division. It compares estimates and projections for both short term (2005-2020) and also long term (1980-2050), with the reality of HIV/AIDS and without the scenario of it. Detailed comparisons are made on population structure and main demographic processes for Malawi (mortality and fertility). The paper compares stock and period indicators, including life expectancy, crude birth rates, crude death rates, age specific fertility rates and child dependency ratios. Considerable effects of HIV/AIDS on mortality and child dependency ratios are observed with the highest point of impact around 1995. With the HIV/AIDS scenario, there is about 6-13 years of reduction in life expectancy at birth for the period from 1995 to 2050. Most likely, persisting HIV/AIDS demographic impacts will continue perpetuating socio-demographic impacts.
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