Abstract
Eleven social background and eleven motivational variables are compared for their ability to explain the careers of 141 members of the Dutch Parliament elected in 1968. MPs are classified into groups of stayers, dropouts, and successfuls who advanced to higher positions. The method of analysis uses Bayes' Theorem to compare the probability of correctly classifying MPs on the basis of each variable, and the information value of each variable is thereby calculated. The conclusion is that motivation and attitude are more important in promoting the continuance of a political career, while social background factors are more important in initial recruitment.
Published Version
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