Simulation of potential suitable distribution of Alnus cremastogyne Burk. In China under climate change scenarios

Abstract

Alnus cremastogyne is a broad-leaved tree species with fast-growing and promising nitrogen-fixing capacity. Its plantation is under steady growing due to the commercial and restoration importance in China. However, little is known about the effects of projected climate change on its adaptability and future distribution. In the present study, we simulated the ecological suitability of A. cremastogyne under three climate change scenarios (CCS) (i.e., SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) in 2050 s and 2070 s using geographic information technology (GIS) and maximum entropy model (MaxEnt). The results demonstrated that under current climate situation, the highly suitable areas were mainly located in central and eastern Sichuan, most of Hunan, central and northern Jiangxi, central and eastern Guizhou, most of Chongqing and southeast Hubei, with a total area of 52.1 × 104 km2. The areas of the moderately and poorly suitable areas were 65.52 × 104 km2 and 92.99 × 104 km2, respectively. Under the future CCS, both the highly suitable area and the total suitable area of A. cremastogyne showed increasing trends, 1.22-fold and 1.57-fold higher for highly suitable area by 2050, 1.27-fold and 1.41-fold by 2070, respectively. While the areas of the poorly suitable areas would decline. Moreover, a northwestward migration of the geometric center of the total suitable area was projected. Annual precipitation (5.9–1314.5 mm), the minimum temperature of coldest month (-0.2–16.8 ℃) and the mean temperature of coldest quarter (0.7–11.7 ℃) were the three most important environmental variables determining the distribution of A. cremastogyne. Our results highlight the plasticity of A. cremastogyne to climate change and also the feasibility of intercropping with this species to improve soil nitrogen availability.