Influence of climatic factors on the potential distribution of pest Heortia vitessoides Moore in China

Abstract

Heortia vitessoides Moore is one of the predominant pests of Aquilaria sinensis (Lour.) Spreng, which is extremely harmful to this plant, and is also an important quarantine pest around the world. To understand the influence of climate factors on the distribution of this pest, maximum entropy modeling (MaxEnt) was used to predict the potential suitable distribution area under certain climatic conditions. The results showed that H. vitessoides was mainly located in the tropical and southern subtropical climate areas of China under current climatic conditions, with a total suitable distribution area of 107.48 × 104 km2. The highly suitable areas were concentrated in the Pearl River Basin and the south of Lancang River Basin with area of 46.19 × 104 km2. In the future, the suitable area showed a tendency to expand to the north. The total suitable distribution area of this species would reach 136.21 × 104-151.62 × 104 km2, which was 26.62%–40.65% higher than that of the current. The climatic factors of precipitation of warmest quarter, precipitation of wettest quarter, min temperature of coldest month, and mean temperature of warmest quarter were the dominant variables affecting the distribution of H. vitessoides. It can be seen that the suitable area of this pest is relatively large and tends to expand, which poses a threat to the growth of A. sinensis. It is suggested that the relevant afforestation and phytosanitary departments should attach great importance and take necessary measures to control the spread of this pest.