Rich dynamics of a delayed Filippov avian-only influenza model with two-thresholds policy

Abstract

A nonsmooth Filippov avian-only influenza model with threshold strategies of culling susceptible and/or infected birds under different conditions is proposed to control the spread of avian influenza. The time delay representing the incubation period of avian influenza is incorporated into our model to make it more realistic, which is different from the traditional Filippov model. The stability of various types of equilibria and the existence of Hopf bifurcation are researched. Moreover, the existence of the sliding mode and its dynamics are investigated by Filippov convexity method. The theoretical analysis and numerical simulations indicate that, according to the value of thresholds and time delay, all solutions eventually converge to the regular equilibrium, pseudoequilibrium or stable periodic solution. We also indicate that time delay has a great influence on the sliding mode. Due to the many factors involved, and our main purpose is to study the impact of time delay on system stability, we have only conducted a simple analysis of the impact of time delay on the sliding mode. Furthermore, the boundary bifurcation switching stable regular equilibrium or stable limit cycle to a stable pseudoequilibrium can be exhibited by numerical simulations. Finally, with the increase of time delay, the global bifurcations from grazing bifurcation to buckling bifurcation and then to cross bifurcation are obtained. Our results indicate that although Filippov control strategies can effectively control the number of infected birds in many cases, the existence of time delay may challenge influenza control by the emergence of buckling bifurcation and cross bifurcation.