Abstract
Predicting reliability is an essential part of the design phase for ensuring mission success. In the realm of gravitational wave detection, the integrity and dependability of the Grabbing, Positioning, and Release Mechanism (GPRM) are paramount for its effective space-based deployment. However, predicting reliability of a complex mechanical system like the GPRM during the design phase poses significant challenges due to the harsh and variable conditions of the space environment. This paper addresses these challenges by proposing a reliability evaluation method that combines the stochastic and degradation characteristics of the GPRM, according to which both randomness of the stud position and the degradation of the piezoelectric coefficient are considered. Failure criteria are established based on mission performance indicators, and the Kaplan-Meier estimator is used to analyze the mechanism reliability of the GPRM over time. The result predicts that the reliability of the GPRM is around 0.8 after 107 operating cycles. This finding demonstrates that our proposed method is an effective approach for evaluating reliability, offering valuable insights for ensuring the long-term performance and successful operation of precision mechanisms.
Published Version
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