System Reliability Evaluation of a Bridge Structure Based on Multivariate Copulas and the AHP–EW Method That Considers Multiple Failure Criteria

Abstract

The system reliability evaluation of a bridge structure is a complicated problem. Previous studies have commonly used approximate estimation methods, such as the wide bounds method and the narrow bounds method, but neither could obtain an accurate result. In recent years, the copula theory has been introduced into the system reliability evaluation, which can obtain more accurate results than the approximate methods. However, most studies simply construct binary copula functions to consider the joint failure of two failure modes. For a complex bridge structure composed of multiple components and failure modes, the joint failure of multiple failure modes needs to be considered. Before evaluating the system reliability, it is necessary to determine the failure criteria of the system. Different failure criteria for simply supported beam bridges have been proposed. However, there is no standard available to determine which failure criterion to choose, and the selection of failure criteria is ambiguous. In this paper, a novel method is proposed to evaluate the system reliability of a simply supported beam bridge by considering multiple failure criteria based on multivariate copulas and the analytic hierarchy process entropy weight (AHP–EW) method. The method first considers multiple failure criteria comprehensively and constructs multivariate copulas for the joint failure of multiple components in a bridge system reliability evaluation. The AHP–EW method is a comprehensive weighting method combining the analytic hierarchy process and entropy weight methods, which is used to establish the hierarchical analysis model between system reliability and multiple failure criteria. By considering the joint failure of multiple failure modes in the system reliability evaluation under a single failure criterion, multivariate copula functions were constructed. In order to verify the applicability of the proposed bridge system reliability method, a simply supported reinforced concrete (RC) hollow slab bridge composed of nine slab segments was selected as the numerical example. The results indicate that the method proposed in this paper could evaluate the bridge system reliability more comprehensively and reasonably.