Reformulating Second Demographic Transition Theory

Abstract

The most familiar conceptual framework in population research describes demographic transition (Thompson 1929; Landry 1934; Davis 1945; Notestein 1953; Chesnais 1992; Kirk 1996; Jones et al. 1998; Caldwell et al. 2006) from high to low birth and death rates. As with any organizing concept that achieves enduring and widespread circulation, this idea of demographic transition has been elaborated in various ways including the variant considered here: that we may distinguish a new second demographic transition (SDT), theoretically and empirically separable from the original manifestation of the phenomenon. Proposed changes to SDT theory better reflect its underlying theoretical foundations and make it more flexible and consistent as a tool for understanding ongoing demographic processes in an expanding range of countries around the world. A brief empirical example illustrates how SDT theory reformulated in this way offers new insights into ongoing demographic trends.