Specifics of demographic transitions in Ukraine after the country gained independence

Aim. To analyze the medical and demographic situation in Ukraine and Transcarpathian Region (Zakarpatska oblast) as a platform for comparing the changes that have taken place in the country as a whole and its region and the basis for the strategic planning of medical care. Materials and Methods. The research materials were based on data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine for the period from 2018 to 2020. The study used the following methods for statistical processing of materials: demographic one, medical statistics, statistical comparison, and generalization. Results and Discussion. The analysis of data on the medical and demographic situation in Ukraine as a whole and in Transcarpathian Region alone showed a significant difference in the dynamics of the population change, its residence place, age, birth and death rates. Based on the results obtained, the development of a strategic plan for medical care necessitates addressing issues that are somehow related to the problems of demographic movement, birth rate, mortality, living conditions in order to overcome the negative trends in medical and demographic processes as well as to increase life expectancy in general. The data obtained during the study indicate the importance of using regional approaches in addressing afore-mentioned issues. Conclusions. Assessing the data of the medical and demographic situation is the key to creating an effective strategic plan for the organization of medical care and making progress in improving community health.

Population and quality of life is one of the most important determinants of the formation of the country's labor force, stable functioning of the labor market, the formation of gross national income. Demographic trends during Ukraine's independence have become persistently negative, significantly worsened the main demographic characteristics of the country, which is expressed in low life expectancy, low birth rate, aging population, rising mortality (especially in working age), intensification of migration processes etc. Demographic problems are prerequisites for many socio-economic, cultural, political and other aspects of the country's development, so they require constant monitoring and analysis, including the use of methods of economic and mathematical modeling. The purpose of the article is to study the demographic situation in Ukraine using statistical and correlation-regression analysis. The main trends of the demographic situation in Ukraine are studied in the article: the dynamics of the permanent population, the distribution of the permanent population of Ukraine by age groups, the number of live births and deaths in Ukraine for 1990-2021. The main reasons for the deteriorating demographic situation in the country, such as economic, social, financial instability in the country, the difficult military-political situation, external migration and others are identified. A correlation-regression model of the influence of socio-economic factors on the current population of Ukraine has been built. It is determined that the development of industry has the greatest positive impact on the dynamics of the current population, and the number of people admitted to higher education the greatest negative impact. The directions of the state policy aimed at regulating demographic processes in the country are given.

Annotation. Since the signing of the Association Agreement with the European Union, European integration processes have been carried out in all spheres of Ukrainian society, including the healthcare sector. The transformation processes in this area are aimed at creating Ukraine's own effective healthcare system through a comprehensive restructuring of the medical sector and improvement of its state regulation mechanisms. We have analyzed the assessment of the national healthcare system, using statistical data of state and regional structures for the period 2010-2013 according to the annual reports of some large medical institutions of Ukraine, sociological and socio-psychological studies, literature data of domestic and foreign authors who have studied and described the state and performance of municipal non-profit enterprises, services and systems. The purpose of this work is to analyze the medical and demographic situation in Ukraine, the main indicators of the national healthcare system in the course of its reform, defined in the strategic objectives in the new conditions and challenges (the Covid-19 pandemic, military aggression in the east of our country and the impact of other factors). According to the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the medical and demographic situation in Ukraine and key performance indicators of the national healthcare system in the course of its reform were analyzed. The obtained data made it possible to identify priority areas for further improvement of its activities to direct priority measures to preserve and strengthen the health of the Ukrainian population. It was determined that the total mortality rate for all causes in 2020 amounted to 1483,6 cases per 100 thousand people (2019 – 1388,3), including by the main causes diseases of the circulatory system – 981,7 cases per 100 thousand people (2019 – 930,2); neoplasms – 187,3 cases per 100 thousand people (2019 – 186,9); external factors – 68,9 cases per 100 thousand people (2019 – 71,7); diseases of the digestive system – 58,1 cases per 100 thousand people (2019 57,7); respiratory diseases – 39,6 cases per 100 thousand people (2019: 29,9); some infectious and parasitic diseases – 16,8 cases per 100 thousand people (2019: 19,4).

In recent years, Ukraine and most regions and countries are experiencing rapid demographic changes. The demographic transition is characterized by the exhaustion of demographic potential caused by the unfavorable socio-demographic situation in the country. This article aims to describe the current demographic situation in Ukraine and reveal major demographic trends leading to economic, social, and environmental unbalances and malfunctions of development models in Ukraine. Tendency for the Ukrainian population decline is caused predominantly by a decrease in the birth rate and an increase in mortality. Women’s fertility has dropped rapidly, and life expectancy has stagnated, driven primarily by unfavorable economic situation, political instability, poor health care system, and social inequality. In Ukraine as in many countries, regardless of the level of their economic development, fertility rates are now below 2.15 children per woman, treated as a long-term replacement rate. Past trends in fertility and mortality have led to an increasingly older population. The aging of society is a challenging phenomenon which characterizes the current stage of the global demographic transition. Migration is another trend that leads to unprecedented demographic changes resulting in more evident variation in aging at the regional level. Ukraine is experiencing the move from rural to urban areas within countries and across borders which causes deprivation of the rural regions and redistribution of the working-age population. Nowadays, the demographic situation results from the adverse impact of internal and external factors. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine may lead to a demographic catastrophe. However, the scale of war consequences is hardly estimable. It is unknown how this war will evolve or when and how it will end, but it has already substantially affected Ukraine’s population.

The impact of migration on the country’s demographic status is particularly significant in the context of the Russian Federation’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The purpose of the academic paper is to assess the interrelation between migration processes and the demographic situation in Ukraine, and the social relations arising from migration processes in Ukraine and resulting in changes in the demographic situation in Ukraine are the objects of the research. The following methods were used in the research: analysis, synthesis, generalization and formal logical method. The academic paper raises significant issues regarding the impact of a full-scale invasion on migration processes and the demographic structure of the population in Ukraine. It is stated that the causes of migration processes can be divided by date – the beginning of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation into the territory of Ukraine. The reasons outlined have led to a change in demographic indicators in terms of gender and age indicators of the population in Ukraine. The academic paper also analyzes the Strategy of the State Migration Policy of Ukraine for the period up to 2025 in order to determine whether it contains state mechanisms and tools to improve the demographic situation. The scientific novelty is the author’s proposal to develop a Plan for the mutual influence of migration and demographic policies of the state in order to improve the latter.

The article presents the demographic situation in Ukraine, which is the most important component of economic, military, and social security in the country. The peculiarities of the demographic situation in Ukraine are demonstrated, which are formed under the influence of external and internal factors, including natural conditions, the basic gene pool, legal, moral and religious norms, administrative and regulatory acts, ecological living conditions, etc. Factors affecting the possibility of stable demographic growth are presented. The topic of informal marriage and family relations is highlighted. The trend of the gradual decrease in the number of marriages in Ukraine in recent years and the stabilization of the number of divorces was analyzed. the natural increase of the population has become negative and steadily continues to decrease, the general mortality rate of the population is one of the highest among European countries. The issue of high mortality of the working-age population is highlighted, while the following sex-age differentiation should be noted as a significant feature: in all age groups of the population from 20 to 50 years, the mortality rate of men is three times higher than that of women. It was analyzed that the natural increase of the population became negative and steadily continues to decrease, the level of total mortality of the population is one of the highest among European countries. The problem of migration is highlighted, that a large number of Ukrainians working abroad not only earn money, but also look for an opportunity to stay and live there forever. If we take into account all the factors that affect the possibility of stable demographic growth, we can say that achieving it is a difficult task.

The article studies to what extent regional socioeconomic and cultural characteristics explain spatial patterns in the Second Demographic Transition in Finland. The country's 75 functional regions are used as area units. A summary indicator of the transition based on divorce and cohabitation is used as the dependent variable. The results show that the spatial pattern is mainly determined according to the regional level of urbanization, but the effect is mediated by cultural characteristics (secularization and support for the socialist and green parties). The cultural characteristics have only a modest independent effect. 1. Introduction This paper was inspired by the studies conducted by Lesthaeghe and Neels (2002) and Lesthaeghe and Neidert (2006) on the determinants of the spatial patterns in demographic transitions in three European countries and the United States. The former study was based on data covering French departements, Belgian arrondissements and Swiss cantons, and analyzed the associations between the indicators of the first and second transitions with historical and contemporary socioeconomic and cultural covariates. The indicators for the second transition were somewhat different in the three countries, and included the divorce rate, non-marital fertility and cohabitation. Most of the explanatory variables (17 from 22 in all countries together) were cultural indicators pertaining to the waves of secularization, voting results, and linguistic divisions. The data included two socioeconomic covariates for France and Belgium and one for Switzerland. Lesthaeghe and Neels (2002) used canonical correlation analysis and found a clear statistical association between indicators of both the first and second demographic transitions and cultural characteristics. The authors presumed that urbanity, high levels of education, and high levels of female labor-force participation would be among the structural predictors for the second transition. This was found to hold best in Switzerland, where the transition was most clearly connected with urbanity and economic development. The link was much weaker in France, and virtually absent in Belgium. In France, both demographic transitions were strongly related to the overall secularization dimension, but both the demographically innovative part of France and areas that were demographic followers contained rural and urban/industrial areas. According to the results for Belgium, the rural-urban distinction in the later 20th century played no role whatsoever in the indicators of the Second Demographic Transition (SDT). In all three countries the link between the ideational (cultural) covariates and both transitions was strikingly pronounced. The explanation, according to the authors, is that the secularization dimension, as it emerged in the 18th and 19th centuries, maintained its spatial features until at least the 1960s, and that further ideational developments related to individual autonomy were grafted onto it. Lesthaeghe and Neidert's (2006) study identified the second-demographictransition dimension in the United States by means of a factor analysis of 19 demographic characteristics of states. The transition factor turned out to be strongly correlated with a high level of income and urbanization, a high proportion of Catholics, and a high proportion of adults with at least a college degree. However, the main finding of the study was a still stronger correlation between this factor and the vote for George W. Bush in two presidential elections. Controlling for the effects of the socioeconomic characteristics, the religious affiliations and the ethnic compositions of the populations of the states did not explain this association. According to Lesthaeghe, Neidert and Surkyn (2007), both economic and cultural factors are necessary for a multi-factorial explanation of the Second Demographic Transition, but their respective weights and roles may vary across societies. …

The Demographic Transition (DT) is known as the historical process from high fertility and mortality in preindustrial society to low fertility and mortality in postindustrial society. At first, it is being observed in Western countries but shortly after World War II, Japan is the first country in Asia presenting demographic transition (DT). Nowadays, this process can be found in many other countries of the world. In this chapter, the classical Demographic Transition (DT) and Second Demographic Transition (SDT) are reexamined. And the reasons of why the elucidation of causality to promote demographic transition has been not successful until today are analyzed. Based on these reconsiderations, Japan’s Demographic Transition (JDT) is observed by using historical data, such as total population, Crude Birth Rate (CBR), Crude Death Rate (CDR), Natural Growth Rate (NGR), and the historical process of JDT is clarified in compare with DT and SDT. In addition, using Total Fertility Rate (TFR), Life Expectancy (LE), and Net Reproduction Rate (NRR), the basic causalities to promote the process are analyzed and finally, a causal model of JDT is postulated.KeywordsThe demographic transition (DT)The second demographic transition (SDT)Japan’s demographic transition (JDT)Crude birth rate (CBR)Crude death rate (CDR)Natural growth rate (NGR)Total fertility rate (TFR)Life expectancy (LE) and net reproduction rate (NRR)Causal modelThe proximate determinants and the background determinantsDavis and BlakeBongaarts

Due to the difficult socio-economic situation and worsening of demographic situation, including the consequences of hostilities and ongoing occupation of the part of Ukraine, today the importance of population study and the research on the factors influencing its changes is increasing. During the study of demographic processes on the basis of a thorough analysis, strategic decisions relevant to the use and reproduction of the country's labour potential, stimulation of the birth rate, reduction of mortality, increase of natural population growth, prevention of depopulation processes, providing effective employment and improvement of social protection of the people are made. The demographic factor is one of the determinants for ensuring sustainable and safe development of the country, and the issue of demographic development should be considered as a factor and at the same time as a result of the functioning of the state. The main purpose of the study is to identify trends in the changes of the main indicators characterizing demographic processes in the country. Methodologically and informationally, this paper is based on the scientific works, the materials from reccurent publications and Internet, the laws and regula-tions and the data of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine and Ptoukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine. The methods used in the study are structural and dynamic analysis, comparison and generalization of the data collected by the State Statistics Service of Ukraine and Ptoukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine. During a study of a phenomenon or a process, first of all, the categorical apparatus is determined. Based on the purpose of the study, the concept of reproduction and natural movement of the population is defined and their theoretical description is given. This paper considers the reproduction of the population as the historically and socio-economically conditioned process of constant and continuous renewal of hu-man generations. Since the natural movement of the population is a process analysis of the birth and death of people, this paper considers such types of population reproduction as archetype, traditional type, transitional type and modern type. For the analysis of the natural movement of the population as a component of demographic safety, the following indicators were evaluated: average life expectancy at birth; depopulation rate; the overall mortality rate of the country's population; in-fant mortality (child mortality up to the age of 1); total birth rate; net reproduction rate; marriage rate; divorce rate. The findings of the analysis show that the main rea-son of the worsening of demographic situation is decrease in the birth rate and in-crease in the mortality rate. Currently, the birth rate in Ukraine is largely limited by both economic factors (insufficient wages, shortage of jobs) and social factors (changes in reproductive habits and norms expressed in the popularity of single-parent families). The analysis revealed socio-economic factors influencing the demo-graphic situation in Ukraine.

The demographic situation in Ukraine is characterized by an accumulation of tendencies that are reaching crisis proportions. The population is decreasing, with an increase in the death rate among working-age people and a negative balance of external migration. Under these conditions, a deterioration in interethnic and interreligious relations in society is possible against a background of a worsening socioeconomic situation for most of the population. In this article, the basic indices characterizing both the current state and the trends of the demographic situation in Ukraine will be presented and analyzed. These include both the population statistics and the factors and consequences that can be derived from those statistics. One caution that needs to be taken into account regarding the statistics is the lack of a census on the background of active demographic processes, including migratory processes, for a considerable period of time.2 This gap is connected with several factors that followed the breakup of the USSR, the formation of independent states, and the transformation of their socioeconomic structure. This transformation included a reformation of the organs of state authority, among the functions of which is registering various population flows. In addition, the systems for collecting and processing information were also reformed, which has both resulted in a level of incompleteness in the register of information and made the data difficult to compare. As a result, only certain data for the year 2000 are used in this article, while the main data set used is limited to that for the year 1999.

Building on the rich tapestry of demographic and economic research, this paper extends the analysis of the Second Demographic Transition (SDT) within the milieu of Czechia, Slovakia, Poland, Romania, and Austria, shedding light on the nuanced interplay between economic variables and demographic indices such as the Total Fertility Rate and the Sobotka’s Second Demographic Transition Behavioral Index (SDT1). Drawing from an extensive dataset spanning over two decades, the study applies Pearson’s correlation analysis, Holt’s Exponential Smoothing, and stepwise regression to unravel the complexities of demographic behaviors in the face of economic prosperity and inequality, as measured by GDP, Gini coefficient, and the Human Development Index. The findings reaffirm the pivotal role of economic factors in shaping demographic trends and highlight the divergent paths Czechia, Slovakia, Poland, and Romania have embarked upon compared to Austria, a representation of Western Europe’s demographic evolution. This comparative analysis underscores the significance of wealth distribution in influencing demographic outcomes, offering a comprehensive understanding of the second demographic progression in the context of economic transitions. The research contributes to the broader discourse on demographic changes, providing insightful implications for policy and future studies in the dynamic landscape of Central and Eastern Europe and beyond.

Previous studies suggest that Latin America is entering into a Second Demographic Transition (SDT). This essay asks whether this theory can account for increasing cohabitation in Chile, contrasting this perspective with three alternative frameworks: gender revolution (GR), declining patriarchy (DP), and the pattern of disadvantage/dual marriage system (POD/DMS). We analyze available evidence from published works and from new research to explore the pertinence of these frameworks to the situation in Chile. We argue that female autonomy is a key determinant of the rise in cohabitation. The SDT, as originally stated, assigned female autonomy a significant role as the engine of demographic changes. However, in recent formulations, specifically, in its applications to Latin America, female autonomy was subsumed under individual autonomy. In any event, structural changes that are preconditions to female autonomy have not been addressed by the SDT. Thus, other frameworks are needed to explain the Chilean situation. According to the DP approach, within a long-term process of declining patriarchy, recent increased participation of Chilean women in paid work was probably the main promoter of female autonomy. Yet greater female autonomy has not been accompanied by changes in men’s domestic labor or by less familistic social policies, which is in accordance with the first stage of the GR. Moreover, enduring inequalities—as proposed by the POD approach—and ongoing relevance of the DMS probably account for the speed of growing cohabitation, not only among the more disadvantaged population, but also among more affluent groups.

Asia is now, predominantly, a continent of ‘low’ fertility—one of the features of the Second Demographic Transition. Across the continent, this feature of our population has sprouted concern and anxiety, primarily expressed in macroeconomic terms. Low fertility is directly linked to the twin challenges of population aging and stagnation/decline. We know, however, that maximizing human capital and institutional reform is a much more effective way of responding to these two ‘grand challenges’ in the short- and medium-term. Why, then, is there such a panic about the lack of babies? In this commentary, I argue that much of the concern is grounded in a ‘fear’ of some of the features of the Second Demographic Transition (SDT)—or, at least, a caricatured version of it—taking root in Asian societies. But how concerned should they be? The papers in this special issue clearly demonstrate that the pathway towards ‘full SDT’ has developed in a very uneven way, perhaps so much so that some may argue the SDT is not a viable tool for understanding family change in (much of) Asia. However, this caricature of what the SDT ‘is’ can be unhelpful. There is no doubt that ideals and attitudes are changing (even if many others are not). Therefore, if we rather consider the SDT as a “general narrative that leaves room for many sub-narratives”, the evidence from Asia clearly demonstrates that there are many sub-narratives operating within a general transition towards some of the key societal and familial features of the SDT.

Rural areas occupy a special place in the socio-economic life of Ukraine. They are home to a third of the population of our state and account for a larger share of its area. The importance of these territories is enhanced by their exceptional contribution to the formation of the foundations of food security and the expansion of the country’s export potential. These and other factors make the development of rural areas one of the main priorities of the state policy of Ukraine aimed at raising the living standards of the rural population, increasing the efficiency of the functioning of the agro-industrial complex, improving the state of the environment and improving the quality of human capital. However, more than 30 years of Ukraine’s independence have not brought the expected increase in well-being to ordinary peasants. According to the processed data of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, it has been established that rural areas are in a catastrophic state: the ecological condition of natural resources is deteriorating, engineering and social infrastructure, and the system of social services have fallen into disrepair. From year to year there is a decrease in the number of medical institutions and enterprises of household services, communication offices, schools and especially preschool institutions. The construction of social facilities and housing for rural youth has practically stopped. The social infrastructure has been practically destroyed, and those institutions of social and cultural purpose, which are still functioning at least somehow, are in survival conditions. Migration processes and the depopulation of the rural population have increased sharply. The agro-ecological condition of soils, the quality of agricultural products grown in rural settlement areas, and the quality of drinking water are deteriorating. The destruction and decline of rural areas is the result of insufficient attention of state management bodies to their problems. Today, 30% of Ukraine’s population lives in rural areas and there are 28,369 villages, while in 1990, 32.6% of the population lived in rural areas and there were 28,845 villages. For the period 1990–2021, 476 rural settlements have disappeared. The demographic situation in Ukraine has received negative changes, it remains especially acute in rural areas, and during the Russian aggression against Ukraine, the demographic situation has generally become catastrophic.

The article considers the formation of the demographic situation in Ukraine during its independence, namely - from 1991 to 2022. The authors analyzed the main demographic indicators - birth rate, mortality rate, natural increase, average life expectancy in the country over the past thirty years.
 In the first years of our country's acquisition of statehood, in addition to positive natural population growth, the increase in its number was also facilitated by a positive balance of migration due to a significant influx of immigrants. However, the deepening socio-economic crisis in 1992-1995 led to a sharp decline in birth rates, a deepening of natural population decline due to negative natural growth, and mass migration abroad in search of work. For the first time since this period, a negative balance of migration was recorded in Ukraine, and from that time until 2022, the volume of emigration exceeds immigration. Indicators of natural population movement have significant differences in the regions of Ukraine, urban and rural settlements. The highest values ​​are traditionally preserved in Volyn, Rivne and Zakarpattia oblasts, and the lowest ones are in Chernihiv and Sumy oblasts.
 The study allowed us to draw conclusions about the negative demographic phenomena - a rapid decline in population due to a significant decrease in birth rates, high mortality rates, the spread of the phenomenon of "aging" of the population. All this leads to the inevitable depopulation in the country, which confirms the demographic loss of about 10 million people during the study period (due to natural population decline and high migration in the mid-1990s and early XXI century). The demographic situation in rural areas remains particularly catastrophic. Negative demographic trends are exacerbated by the mass exodus of young people to study and work in the cities.
 Among the main factors that influenced the formation of the current demographic situation in Ukraine are: socio-economic (high unemployment, migration abroad, low level and quality of life compared to other countries in the European region), environmental (high level of industrial pollution) certain regions, uncontrolled application of mineral fertilizers to agricultural land, radiation emissions associated with the Chernobyl disaster), natural (Covid-19 epidemic), military (active phase of the Russian-Ukrainian war in 2022).
 The demographic catastrophe in Ukraine, connected with the beginning of the Russian-Ukrainian war in 2022, deserves special attention. The huge direct and indirect losses suffered by the country are due to the direct deaths during the hostilities, as well as the mass migration of people abroad since the beginning of the war. The losses will be assessed by demographers and statistical services after the war, but it is already worth considering the directions of a comprehensive demographic policy in Ukraine in the postwar period, which will restore the country's demographic potential. This work requires the coordinated work of demographers, geographers, economists and government and local government representatives. The authors outlined only the most important vectors of the formation of a new demographic policy in postwar Ukraine. They plan to pay more attention to these aspects by continuing further research.
 Keywords: population reproduction, birth rate, mortality, natural movement, life expectancy