Japan’s Demographic Transition (JDT)

Abstract

The Demographic Transition (DT) is known as the historical process from high fertility and mortality in preindustrial society to low fertility and mortality in postindustrial society. At first, it is being observed in Western countries but shortly after World War II, Japan is the first country in Asia presenting demographic transition (DT). Nowadays, this process can be found in many other countries of the world. In this chapter, the classical Demographic Transition (DT) and Second Demographic Transition (SDT) are reexamined. And the reasons of why the elucidation of causality to promote demographic transition has been not successful until today are analyzed. Based on these reconsiderations, Japan’s Demographic Transition (JDT) is observed by using historical data, such as total population, Crude Birth Rate (CBR), Crude Death Rate (CDR), Natural Growth Rate (NGR), and the historical process of JDT is clarified in compare with DT and SDT. In addition, using Total Fertility Rate (TFR), Life Expectancy (LE), and Net Reproduction Rate (NRR), the basic causalities to promote the process are analyzed and finally, a causal model of JDT is postulated.KeywordsThe demographic transition (DT)The second demographic transition (SDT)Japan’s demographic transition (JDT)Crude birth rate (CBR)Crude death rate (CDR)Natural growth rate (NGR)Total fertility rate (TFR)Life expectancy (LE) and net reproduction rate (NRR)Causal modelThe proximate determinants and the background determinantsDavis and BlakeBongaarts