Demographic Transition in The Cis Countries: Trends and Preliminary Results

Abstract

The presented work is devoted to the consideration of trends and effects of demographic transition in the countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States (hereinafter-the CIS). The main purpose of the study is to consider the impact of the demographic transition on the population dynamics both in the post-Soviet countries and on a global scale. For a more systematic understanding of the depth of demographic changes at the present stage of society’s development, historical trends in population development and key provisions of the theory of demographic transition were considered. The trends of demographic developmentof the CIS countries in the period 1992–2020 were analyzed, including the dynamics of the population, the values of birth and death rates, as well as indicators characterizing the change in the age structure of the population. In order to obtain an information base for the study of trends in the demographic development of the CIS countries, a statistical method was used: data from international organizations of the United Nations and the CIS Statistical Committee were used to characterize the demographic trends of the CIS countries, including national statistics data, as well as data from the Internet project-Our World in Data to obtain historical data on the dynamics of the world population. The method of system analysis was used to assess the trends and characteristics of demographic processes in the CIS countries in the context of the theory of demographic transition. The analytical method was also used in the study. Based on the values of the total fertility and mortality rates, the natural growth rate, the total fertility rate, life expectancy, as well as the median age in the CIS countries, the authors make an assumption – which stage of the demographic transition is characteristic of this group of states. In conclusion, the authors present hypotheses about possible directions of demographic development of the post-Soviet countries in the context of the theory of demographic transition.