Reassessing Peace: The Implications of the Abraham Accords for Conflict Resolution in the Gulf Region

Abstract

Established in 2020, the Abraham accords marked a remarkable step towards the normalisation of relations between Gulf Arab states and Israel. They have been hailed as a potential turning point for peace and regional cooperation. However, the recent Israeli military operations since the end of 2023 raise critical questions about the durability and impact of these accords. This paper proposes an in-depth examination of the implications of the Israel/Gaza war on the Abraham Accords and their dynamics in peace-building. It will explore how the war has potentially reshaped (or not) alliances, influenced public opinion, and altered the strategic calculations of Gulf states, particularly in their approaches to conflict resolution and engagement with external actors. This research aims to contribute to the understanding of the complex interplay between regional conflicts and their broader implications for peace and stability in the Gulf, offering insights into the future trajectory of Gulf states in the realm of conflict resolution and peace-building combined with self-interested dynamics. The comparative analysis will delve into two case studies: the United Arab Emirates, which signed the Abraham Accords, and Qatar, which did not, highlighting how similar conflicts have historically altered political alignments, economic dependencies, and social narratives within the Gulf.