China’s Hedging Strategy in the Gulf: A Case of ‘Even-handedness’ Diplomacy

Abstract

The current scholarly and policy researches highlight that hedging strategy is usually applied by small powers in the face of great power competitions. This article argues that the strategy can be implemented by great powers in the face of conflicts and competition among other states as well. The hidden logic of Beijing’s hedging strategy is seeking a zero-enemy policy in the Gulf and beyond by building a network of partnerships to minimise geo-political venture and maximise its geo-economic interests. This strategy is manifested in Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990, the US-Iran military confrontation in the twenty-first century, the Iran-Saudi rivalry since 2016, the Qatari diplomatic crisis with other GCC states in 2017, and the escalation of the Iran-Israel conflict since 2020. China’s hedging strategy has successfully de-linked the global Cold War (US-China rivalry) with the Gulf Cold War (Israel-Iranian confrontation). It has consolidated China-Gulf cooperation under the umbrella of ‘global south’.