RCP 기후변화 시나리오를 활용한 한반도 연최대 일강우 분석

Abstract

This study analyzes daily rainfall within the Korean Peninsula under RCP scenario. To compare RCP scenarios with recent rainfall, atotal of 88 rainfall stations across Korean Peninsula, including 61 stations in South Korea and 27 in North Korea, with no missingdaily rainfall data from 1981 to 2010 (SP0) were selected, and the RCP scenario was separated into three periods: 2011-2040 (SP1),2041-2070 (SP2), and 2071-2100 (SP3). Comparisons between scenarios, and between the recent observed data (SP0) and each of theRCP scenarios were performed using the mean and maximum of the annual maximum daily rainfall for each period. The parametersof the Gumbel distribution at each station for the observed SP0 period were estimated by using a probability weighted momentmethod. Using these parameters, the return period was estimated for the maximum rainfall in the RCP scenario for each period.Across all scenarios and in all periods, more rainfall stations registered an increase in the maximum rainfall than in the mean rainfall,and North Korea has much higher rates of increases in the mean rainfall than does South Korea. Ratios of rainfall stations with areturn Period over 300-year in SP1, SP2, and SP3 are 14%, 28% and 35%, and ratios of rainfall stations with a return period over1,000-year among those are especially high: SP1 64%, SP2 63% and SP3 69%.Key words : Climate change, RCP scenario, Rainfall frequency, Annul maximum daily rainfall