Abstract
Although the magnitude and frequency of extreme events on the global scale are expected to change because of changes in the hydrological cycle under climate change, little quantitative assessment of future extreme precipitation in North Korea has been attempted. Therefore, this study projected the changes in extreme precipitation in North Korea by applying downscaling to GCMs forced by Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) Scenarios 4.5 and 8.5, preserving the long-term trend of climate change projection. Employing climate change scenario ensembles of RCP8.5, the precipitation level of the 20-year return period in the reference period of 1980–2005 increased to 21.1 years for the future period 2011–2040, decreased to 16.2 years for 2041–2070, and decreased to 8.8 years for 2071–2100. Extreme precipitation was expected to occur often in the future. In addition, an increase in extreme precipitation at the border of North and South Korea is expected, and it is concluded that a joint response for the Imjin River, a river shared by North and South Korea, is needed.
Highlights
Owing to climate change, heavy precipitation events associated with mesoscale convective processes frequently occur during the summer monsoon in East Asia [1,2,3]
Investigations based on the nonstationarity of observational data or using climate change scenarios have been employed to assess the impacts of climate change
This study identified a striking trend of decreasing summer precipitation across North Korea
Summary
Heavy precipitation events associated with mesoscale convective processes frequently occur during the summer monsoon in East Asia [1,2,3]. North Korea is expected to experience extreme precipitation changes because of climate change. Investigations based on the nonstationarity of observational data or using climate change scenarios have been employed to assess the impacts of climate change. In order to investigate hydrometeorological variables of South and North Korea, Kim et al [4] analyzed daily precipitation data of North Korea from 1983 to 2007 and of South Korea for the 35-year period from 1973 to 2007. This study identified a striking trend of decreasing summer precipitation across North Korea.
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