Proliferation and the Probability of War

Abstract

To determine formally the effects of nuclear proliferation on the probability of a deliberate nuclear war requires more than just qualitative assertions about the change in the probability that an individual nation will initiate a deliberate nuclear war as the number of nuclear powers increases. For a model to predict that an increase in the number of nuclear powers will increase or decrease the probability of a deliberate nuclear war, it is necessary that it be able to predict the cardinality of the change in the probability that any one nation will initiate a nuclear war. Inasmuch as this is beyond the capability of most models in economics and political science, the formal debate on this issue should be viewed with caution. It is likely that the dominant factor when considering the effect of proliferation on the probability of a nuclear war is that it will occur as a result of an accident or other inadvertent behavior.