Projection of Waste Photovoltaic Modules in China Considering Multiple Scenarios

Abstract

China's rapid deployment of photovoltaic (PV) generation will result in large volumes of waste photovoltaic modules. Predictions about future waste modules flows are a crucial step toward their management. In this paper, we first use a GM(1,1) model to predict China's PV installed capacity, and then adopt the Weibull distribution model to forecast China's future waste PV module flows. More specifically, this study determined the relevant parameters and established multiple scenarios for reasonable and reliable projections of waste PV modules flows based on an analysis of the factors such as quality of the modules and of the operations and maintenance of photovoltaic stations, as well as photovoltaic generation application modes, that affect the failure and the lifespan of photovoltaic modules. Based on newly installed and alternative installed capacities, the results show that the earliest large-scale PV modules scrapping will occur in 2025 and generate an accumulative 36.1 million tons (599.5GW) by 2040. For optimistic scenarios, the volume of waste PV modules will explode in 2035 and reach an accumulative 6.7 million tons (108.2GW) by 2040. Therefore, it is necessary to address the relevant regulatory schemes while planning a recycling network for waste PV modules before 2025.