Is subsidy needed for waste PV modules recycling in China? A system dynamics simulation

Abstract

The growing photovoltaic (PV) generation installation accelerates the increase of waste PV modules in China, and the recycling of used modules is inevitable and urgent. However, the economic feasibility of recycling is uncertain due to factors like policy, technology, and market. In this regard, the aim of this paper is to investigate the impact of a subsidy policy on the comprehensive economic feasibility of waste module recycling, and to identify a reasonable subsidy scheme. In particular, we developed the system dynamics model for PV waste modules recycling that can simulate the evolution of the recycling ROI (return on investment), the recovery rate and the subsidy cost for a baseline and reasonable scenarios with different subsidies. We also considered cost factors, for example, learning rates for recycling technology, buyback prices and recovery transportation distances, etc. The results show that, in the early stages of recycling (before 2026), the comprehensive cost-economic feasibility of recycling is low without subsidies, and therefore subsidy policies are needed to support and guide recycling. However, we also need to set reasonable subsidy standards and exit mechanisms for different recycling stages considering the changes of recycling technology costs, recovery rates and subsidy costs, etc.