Prediction, evaluation and optimization of China's copper resource supply system under carbon constraints

Abstract

Copper is one of China's strategic mineral resources, and its supply security is of great strategic significance to China. In this study, a model of China's copper resource supply system under carbon constraints is constructed using the system dynamics method, and the future supply potential of the system is analyzed and evaluated. Based on the evaluation results, the differential evolution algorithm is used to optimize the supply system to obtain the optimal supply structure that meets the supply-demand balance and carbon emission constraints. Under the carbon constraint scenario, although the carbon emissions of China's copper supply system have declined, a series of problems have also been exposed: such as insufficient primary copper production, excessive dependence on external copper resources, and excessive scrapping of unstable copper-containing products, The supply of secondary copper is affected by the import policy. These factors not only hinder the carbon emission reduction of the copper industry, but also make China's future copper supply full of uncertainty. The optimized supply system significantly reduces carbon emissions (12,664,300 tons per year on average) while meeting the supply-demand balance conditions. The optimal supply structure under the carbon constraint is 26.7 %, 36.3 %, and 37.0 % of the supply shares of the production, recycling, and trading subsystems, respectively. The study results found that improving recycling efficiency can effectively reduce carbon emissions, and when the recycling rate reaches 80 %, China's copper resource supply system will achieve “carbon peak” in 2025, with a peak carbon emission of 41.182 million tons. According to the results, this study suggests that policymakers should strengthen the exploration of primary copper resources, support the development of the secondary recovery industry, and realize diversified import distribution.