Low-carbon transformation of the regional electric power supply structure in China: A scenario analysis based on a bottom-up model with resource endowment constraints

Abstract

The electric power industry is the main source of carbon emissions in China. The structural transformation of electric power supply plays a key role in the realization of low-carbon development in China. However, the low-carbon transformation of the electric power structure has to consider the differences in resource endowment and technical conditions among regions. To investigate the potential evolution of the regional electric power supply structure, we collect data of provincial resource endowment and technical differences and introduce them into the Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (TIMES) model of China's regional electric power sector. In this model, different scenarios for carbon emission reduction in the electric power industry are set, and the optimal regional electric power supply structures under each constraint of carbon emissions are calculated. The results show that the electric power supply structure will change in various regions when the carbon emission reduction target increases from 5% (LC1 scenario) to 15% (LC3 scenario). In 2030, the proportion of thermal power in all regions will decline, especially in western China, where the proportion will decline by 8.47%. However, thermal power will still play a leading role in central China and eastern China, with the proportion more than 50%. Meanwhile, the proportion of the power generation of renewable energy in all regions will increase rapidly in the LC3 scenario, especially in western China, where the proportion will account for 60.72% in 2030, while the proportion will account for 27.26% in eastern China in 2030. Wind power will play an important role in the power supply system in the LC3 scenario, and the proportion of wind power in all regions will exceed that of solar power in 2030, especially in northeast China, where the highest proportion of wind power will come to 30.37%.