Abstract
There is a serious problem of overcapacity in the electric power industry which is harmful to its sustainable development. To seek a rational industry planning and reduce the harm from overcapacity, we investigate the competitiveness of provincial electric power supply in overall and different types of electric power industry by constructing a TIMES model that considers the differences of provincial technology and resource endowment in the BAU (the Business as Usual) and low carbon (LC1, LC2) scenarios. The results show that Xinjiang and Jiangxi have strong competitiveness, while Beijing, Tianjin and Jilin have weak competitiveness in terms of overall electric power industry in BAU scenario. Thermal power supply will decrease by 8.65% and 13.73% in 2030 in LC1 and LC2 scenarios respectively. Anhui and Shanxi have strong competitiveness, while Beijing and Tianjin have weak competitiveness in term of thermal power supply. In 2030, renewable energy power supply will increase by 1.95% and 3.09% in LC1 and LC2 scenarios respectively. Inner Mongolia and Hubei have strong competitiveness, while Tianjin and Jilin have weak competitiveness in terms of renewable energy power supply.
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